• Bitcoin has erased losses seen on Monday with a strong bounce from the bullish 5-week moving average (MA) support of $3,703. That has raised the odds of a rally to the psychological hurdle of $4,000.
  • A bull flag breakout on the hourly chart also shows scope for a rise to $4,040 (target as per the measured method). The bullish would weaken if the flag breakout ends up trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the .
  • A UTC close below $3,58 (Feb. 27 low) would the bears back in the driver’s seat. That looks unlikely, as the quick recovery from key MA support has bolstered the bullish bias signaled by both the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27 and the weekly chart indicators.

With bitcoin’s (BTC) quick reversal of the losses seen on Monday, the technical charts are again pointing to a rally to $4,000.

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization jumped to a high of $3,877 yesterday, before seeing a UTC close at $3,844, according to Bitstamp data. The 3.9 percent gain engulfed the 2.4 percent drop registered on Monday.

The bounce from the 5-week moving average (MA) support at $3,703 has reinforced the bullish view put forward by the ascending indicator. The average is also bullishly holding above the 10-week MA for the first time since August 2008, as discussed yesterday.

Further, BTC’s persistent defense of the 100-day MA line, seen below $3,700, in the last nine days has weakened the high-volume bearish outside reversal witnessed on Feb. 24.

So, the doors look open for BTC to revisit $4,000 – more so, as a shorter duration technical chart is showing a bullish continuation pattern. As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,840, representing a 3 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Bitcoin’s strong bounce from the 100-day MA support line seen in the above chart has strengthened the bullish appeal of the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27.

Prices could soon rise above $3,897 – the high of the doji candle with long upper shadow created on Feb. 28. That would further raise the odds of a rally to the psychological hurdle of $4,000.

Further, the 100-day moving average (MA) is now flatlined (has shed bearish bias), which adds credence to the long-term bearish exhaustion signaled by the longer duration indicators.

Hourly chart

The bull flag breakout seen in the above chart indicates that the rally from lows below $3,700 seen on Monday has resumed and could yield a rally to $4,040 (target as per the measured move method).

Supporting that bullish case is the relative strength index (RSI) of 67.00.

Watch out for a failed breakout though, as that would take the shine off the bounce from the key support at $3,700 and weaken the immediate bullish case.

That said, a bearish reversal would be confirmed only if prices find acceptance under $$3,658 (low of the long-tailed doji on the daily chart).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency  at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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